For Practice Only!
Question 1. Consider the following statement:
“Understanding intelligence analytical processes and approaches will make little difference in the future, as manufactured intelligence tools and artificial intelligence will make the informed analyst largely irrelevant.”
Do you agree with this statement? Why/Why not?
Response:
An understanding of intelligence and analytical processes is considered a fundamental skill of any intelligence analyst. Indeed, one definition of intelligence is information that has been subjected to the intelligence cycle (Lowenthal, 2016, p. 1). The introduction of manufactured intelligence tools and artificial intelligence (AI) will automate some of the steps of the process however they will not replace the requirement for an informed analyst who can then use their skills to interpret the output of these tools. This answer will provide a definition of the intelligence cycle and the place of analytical process within it. It will then examine the role of manufactured intelligence tools concentrating of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) as an example.
The intelligence process or cycle consists of five steps Planning, Collection, Processing, Analysis / Production and Dissemination (Johnson, 2007, p. 366). This is a simplified view as in reality many of the steps have feedback loops however we can use this as a framework (Johnson, 1986, p. 1). It is at the Analysis step that different analytical approaches are used. Diagnostic techniques such as a Key Assumptions Check are used to identify assumptions or intelligence gaps. Contrarian techniques such as Devils Advocacy challenge current thinking and Imaginative Thinking such as Brainstorming can be used to find new insights and develop different perspectives (United States, Gov., 2009, p. 9).
Manufactured intelligence tools and AI are used primarily in the collection and collation phases of the intelligence cycle most notably in handling of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) (Hagen, 2013, p. 3). OSINT is generally unclassified information or information that is otherwise available to the public. While OSINT is not limited to electronic sources it is against these sources and the massive amount of data they produce that manufactured intelligence tools can be deployed with greatest effect. Tools such as Artificial Neural Networks and can be used to mine the data and flag relevant markers for further investigation (Carroll, 2005, pp. 2-3).
While automated tools are increasingly able to identify suspect patterns what may indicate criminal, terrorist or espionage activity an analyst is still required to put these signals into context. In order to provide context an analyst needs to have some knowledge of the social and cultural background of the information they are working with. They need to understand how people think, their world view their goals and objectives (Hall & Citrenbaum, 2009, p. 1). They are also required to disseminate this information in a form that is useful and relevant to the customer. It is at these phases of the intelligence cycle that manufactured tools or AI are not able to replace a trained analyst as they are non-rule based decisions.
With the advent of the world wide web, social medial and other modern sources of intelligence it is only natural for tools to be developed that will assist making sense of the massive amount of data created, to find the intelligence needle in a massive haystack. However, the product of these tools will still require the input of an informed analyst who can provide context.
References
arroll, J. M., 2005. OSINT Analysis Using Adaptive Resonance Theory For Counterterrorism Warnings.. Artificial Intelligence and Applications, pp. 756 – 760.
Hagen, L., 2013. Methods And Tools For Automated Data Collection And Collation of Open Source Information, Ottawa: Defence R&D Canada – CORA.
Hall, W. M. & Citrenbaum, G., 2009. Intelligence Analysis: How To Think in Complex Environments. Santa Barbara: ABC-CLIO.
Johnson, L. K., 1986. Making The Intelligence “Cycle” Work. International Journal of Intelligence and Counter Intelligence, 1(4), pp. 1 – 23.
Johnson, L. K. ed., 2007. Handbook Of Intelligence Studies. New York: Routledge.
Lowenthal, M. M., 2016. Intelligence: From Secrets To Policy. Washington DC: CQ press.
United States, Gov., 2009. A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques For Improving Intelligence Analysis. :CIA Center For The Study Of Intelligence.
Question 2 (10 marks, 500 words +/- 10%)
Consider the following statement:
“By far, the most important thing to happen to intelligence since the beginning of the Cold War is technological advancement.”
Is this claim accurate? Why or why not?
Response:
While this claim is accurate in that technological advances have been important to the intelligence field my answer will show that an over reliance on technology can be detrimental to intelligence operations.
The Cold War was an extended period of tension and competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. Beginning at the end of World War Two until the end of the 1980’s trillions of dollars were spent by both sides to develop weapons and spy on their enemies. The advances in technology brought about by this expenditure initiated significant change in the way intelligence is collected with a move toward technological methods, particularly by western agencies. This reliance on technology however has also resulted in intelligence failures due to an absence of Human Intelligence (HUMINT).
HUMINT is intelligence gathered through “traditional” espionage usually involving sending clandestine operatives to target countries in order to recruit spies of collect information. These operatives can have diplomatic cover which provides them some protection if they are discovered. Another type of HUMINT resource is the –non-official, they may operate as businessmen or some other cover but run more of a risk as they will not be recognised as diplomats should they be discovered (Margolis, 2013, p. 45).
Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) which includes communications, electronic and telemetry intelligence is the interception of electronic communications (Turner, 2006, p. 183). Geospatial intelligence (GEOINT), also called imagery intelligence is information derived from images from satellites, aircraft or radar regarding any object that can be observed on the earth and has security implications (Lowenthal, 2016, p. 88). It is these latter two disciplines that benefited most from the technological advance of the cold war.
As a result of the technological advances during and since the Cold War western intelligence agencies, particularly the United States have focused on technical methods of gathering intelligence while neglecting traditional human espionage. This lack of HUMINT deprives analysts of clarity regarding intensions and capabilities. It also leaves the door open to counterintelligence operations (Turner, 2006, p. 50).
Some examples of intelligence operations that highlight the importance of HUMINT include Operation Gold, a wiretapping operation in East Berlin. Probably exposed by British mole George Blake it’s possible the Soviets were feeding the West false information from the very beginning (Margolis, 2013, p. 51). The Cuban Missile Crisis starts as a classic example of technology driven intelligence when U-S spy planes showed that missiles had been deployed by the Soviets. However, it was HUMINT provided by Soviet colonel Oleg Penkovsky regarding the missiles assembly time that gave Kennedy the confidence to seek a diplomatic solution (Margolis, 2013, p. 52).
One of the most important developments in intelligence collection has been the development of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAE’s) or drones. UAVs can be equipped to collect the entire cross section of electronic intelligence at relatively low cost and risk. (Jameson, 2007). UAE’s can also be used for “signature strikes” striking a target because the activity taking place appears to be terrorist related. Without HUMINT confirmation these strikes can risk hitting innocents with all of the resulting political fallout.
This response has explored the technological advances since the Cold War started and conclude that while they have been most important to the intelligence field they should not be used on their own. Overlooking HUMINT can be detrimental even in this day and age.
References
Jameson, H., 2007. Drones Between Satellite And Earth. (Drone satcom). [Online]
Available at: https://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-173229598.html
[Accessed 10 June 2017].
Lowenthal, M. M., 2016. Intelligence: From Secrets To Policy. Washington DC: CQ press.
Margolis, G., 2013. The Lack Of HUMINT: A Recurring Intelligence Problem. Global Security Studies, 4(2), pp. 46-60.
Turner, M. A., 2006. Historical Dictionary of United States Intelligence. Lanham: The Scarecrow Press, Inc..
Question 3 (10 marks, 500 words +/- 10%)
Consider the following statement:
“The priority that the Australian Intelligence Community places on combating terrorism is not justified.”
Do you agree with this statement? Why/Why not?
Response:
Terrorism has been Australia’s top national security concern for several years. Considered a real and evolving risk Australian intelligence agencies have had their capabilities expanded and new legislation has been enacted to meet this threat (Ferguson, 2014). This answer will show that given the persistence that terrorist groups have demonstrated, their ability to continually recruit despite setbacks on the battlefield and adapt to changing conditions that this prioritisation is justified.
The terrorist threat to Australia is rising and becoming harder to combat. The symptoms of this can be observed in the increasing number of Australians joining overseas extremist groups and the global trend toward low tech attacks unusually carried out by loan actors recruited over the internet. These attacks are particularly hard to combat as there can be few signs of planning and only a short time between a perpetrator forming an intent and carrying out their actions (Commonwealth of Australia, 2015, p. 4).
The main source of the terrorist threat to Australia comes from people who follow a militant interpretation of Islam, calling for violence in response to grievances perceived or real. This narrative postulates that western powers led by the USA are systemically exploiting and repressing Muslims and that governments in Muslim majority countries are corrupt or un-Islamic. The solution is to remove western influence and establish a “true Islamic” system of government. In order to do this, it is the religious duty of all true Muslims to attack the enemies of Islam anywhere in the world (Commonwealth of Australia, 2010, p. 16).
The international situation, with the rise of ISIL and the civil war in Syria are further reinforcing these extremist narratives and groups are now expert at using social media the publish glossy propaganda material which is increasingly appealing to the Australian community. Groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra post videos of fighters rescuing civilians from Assad regime snipers, implying a life of heroism and adventure appealing to young viewers who may be looking of a direction in life (Commonwealth of Australia, 2015, p. 34).
A further threat can be seen in the number of Australians traveling to the Middle East to train with or join Jihadist groups in Syria and Iraq. These fighters will quite possibly pose a threat once they returned home with dangerous skills and violent ideology Europe has already seen multiple attacks carried out by returning foreign fighters. In 2014 a fighter who had trained in Syria killed four people at the Jewish museum in Belgium and at least one of the Charlie Hebdo attackers had trained with al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen (Zammit, 2015, p. 4).
This answer has explored several reasons that the terrorist threat in Australia deserves the high priority it has been given. These reasons include the resilience of the groups involved, their ability to adapt tactics their improved propaganda and the continuing threat of violence carried out by returning overseas fighters.
References
Commonwealth of Australia, 2010. Counter Terrorism White-Paper Securing Australia | Protecting our Community 2010. [Online]
Available at: https://www.dst.defence.gov.au/sites/default/files/basic_pages/documents/counter-terrorism-white-paper.pdf
[Accessed 09 June 2017].
Commonwealth of Australia, 2015. Review or Australia’s Counter-Terrorism Machinery. [Online]
Available at: https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/190215_CT_Review_0.pdf
[Accessed 11 June 2017].
Ferguson, S., 2014. Homegrown Terrorism Australia’s Main National Security Concern Says Julie Bishop. [Online]
Available at: http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2014/s4061539.htm
[Accessed 09 June 2017].
Zammit, A., 2015. Australian Foreign Fighters: Risks and Responses. [Online]
Available at: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/sites/default/files/australian-foreign-fighters-risks-and-responses.pdf
[Accessed 07 June 2017].